Macrobond Blog | Macroeconomic insights

A rate hike of 75 bps? Or 100? What might the Fed do next?

We chart market expectations and the US central bank’s historic responses to inflation.

Karl-Philip Nilsson

Guest blogger

In-house blogger

Karl-Philip Nilsson

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The savings glut of the wealthy

The asset-rich will benefit most from rising demand for safe investments.

Julius Probst

Guest blogger

In-house blogger

Julius Probst

,

PhD

What can we say about Brexit?

On the sixth anniversary of the referendum, we explore the trade impact of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU.

Karl-Philip Nilsson

Guest blogger

In-house blogger

Karl-Philip Nilsson

,

High-Frequency Indicators – a goldmine of real-time information

Why HFIs are more important than ever.

Gregoire Haftman

Guest blogger

In-house blogger

Gregoire Haftman

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What’s next for global trade? Using Indicio to create a forecast

Our model predicts stagnation until at least early 2023.

Julius Probst

Guest blogger

In-house blogger

Julius Probst

,

PhD

All in it together? Eurozone nations provide wildly different inflation forecasts for the bloc in wake of Ukraine war

FocusEconomics guest blogger Oliver Reynolds shows how proximity to Ukraine and Russia affects predictions.

Oliver Reynolds

Guest blogger

In-house blogger

Oliver Reynolds

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Dr. Helen Johnson

Berthon Jean Baptiste

Daniel McCormack

Jonathan Kearns

Francois Trahan

Enguerrand Artaz

Ombretta Signori

Japan Exchange Group (JPX)

Fabio Scacciavillani

Ruta Prieskienyte

Reinder Haitsma

Carlos de Sousa

Andreas Steno Larsen

Jahangir Hussain

Joshua Sebastian

Kate Everett-Allen

Daniel Tenengauzer

Dr Naif Al-Ghaith

Andrew Salomone Viteritti

Dr Stephen Kirchner

Michael Brisley

Tomas Liljeborg

Dr David Skilling

Daisuke Karakama

Juan Carlos Diaz

Harald Magnus Andreassen

David Beckworth

Gregoire Haftman

Oliver Reynolds

Maarten van der Spek

German industry

Asset valuation

Non-farm payroll

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Consumer Price Index

The BOJ is dropping hints that Japan’s “lift-off” from NIRP is likely just months away

The Bank of Japan’s tailwinds: inflation, a labour crunch and corporate profits

Data matters most when it’s a ‘data-dependent’ stance for central banks globally

Who are the leading players in the cash-JGBs market?

A bold look at sovereign default risks

Modeling how German inflation might be easing with Indicio

The clock is ticking on the US economy

The Bank of Japan’s "tweak and hold" as inflation ratchets higher

China’s currency is weighed down by monetary divergence with the US – but supported by the current account surplus

No need to tighten, but too early to cut. How long will the ECB stay on pause?

Watching the NBER’s six recession indicators as US growth confounds the skeptics

The ECB assesses this cycle’s slowdown with a “pause” likely

Forecasting inflation Down Under using Indicio – and watching for pressure on the Aussie dollar

Assessing scenarios for oil amid unrest in the Middle East

Japan is obsessed with wages

Non-farm payrolls may show only modest softening in the US job market

Using Indicio to forecast inflation on both sides of the Atlantic

A divergent outlook for central banks after a year of tightening

Is cash king given higher rates? Examining the alternatives for asset allocation

Will markets force the BOJ to finally abandon negative rates?

An expanded BRICS will take some time to make progress on “de-dollarisation”

Heatmapping the world: in search of inflation’s hottest and coldest spots

Medical costs are likely to make US inflation stickier

America and China have traded places

Japan’s inflation revolution

Forecasting NFP: A mixed job market, a slight slowdown

Nowcasting Germany’s stagnant industrial production as the nation debates its economic model

Forecasting NFP with the Fed’s next move in focus

U.S. labour’s leading indicators

Will the US suffer another recession in the near term?

Will the US dollar depreciate further as the global economy recovers?

Why you should care about turmoil in Kazakhstan

Why US inflation will slow and help the BOJ

Why didn’t Japan suffer its own version of the US regional bank crisis? History, incentives, regulation and experience

China's housing market bounces back from pandemic

Who will replace Angela Merkel as German chancellor?

When will the US dollar rebound?

Where is US real estate heading in 2022? A forecast from Indicio

What’s the Fed to do?

What’s next for global trade? Using Indicio to create a forecast

What's causing inflation right now?

What to expect from the Ueda BOJ

What's next for oil prices?

What makes a 'failing' pension fund?

What can we say about Brexit?

US boom, euro gloom?

UK a different story; unlike the US 'soft landing' outlook: CPI trends and BoE's rate cycle

The savings glut of the wealthy

The post-pandemic future looks brighter for the UAE

Will Powell channel his inner Volcker?

The Kuroda Code: no virtuous wage-price spiral in Japan

Revisiting Australia's 'Lowe Gap'

Eurozone integration stronger than ever after Brexit

COVID-19 uncovers surprising economic trend

The 8 principles of good data management

Seeking yield? Go east

Bond investors need to hold out longer for meaningful returns

Saudi banks are safe at a time of turmoil in the US and Europe

Saudi Arabia must persist in its diversification drive

OPEC, debt and miasma

Monitoring US bank deposit flows with Macrobond: a moment for (cautious) optimism

Many people are going to be very wrong in 2023

Macrobond x Indicio accurately forecasts German industry production

Guest blog: Key lessons from the demise of Trussonomics

Is US monetary policy too easy right now?

Is China’s house price bubble ready to burst?

Indian vegetable prices collapse on oversupply

Indicio and Macrobond beat the street predicting inflation and US housing

Institutions are deteriorating in emerging markets – especially China

How prepared are emerging markets for inflation?

How Southeast Asia benefits from China's reopening in eight charts

How quickly does the COVID-19 vaccine lead to a drop in infections?

How to find the right collaboration tool for your teams

Pandemic hits BRIC economic growth

How much progress has been made towards gender equality?

High-frequency data: from optional to indispensable

High-Frequency Indicators – a goldmine of real-time information

High-frequency data shows UK and US job markets heating up

Globalisation remains resilient through Covid

GCC: A stellar 2022 performance, headwinds in 2023

Full speed ahead for China’s electric vehicles

Forward guidance on… wages? Japan’s companies promise higher pay and consider AI – as stocks and GDP forecasts perk up

Forecasting personal consumption expenditures (PCE) with Indicio

Forecasting nonfarm payrolls (NFP) with Indicio

Five labour market charts you need to watch in 2023

Eight FX and rate charts to watch right now

Euro area consumer food price inflation: problematic, but past its peak

Escape the prison of Excel

ECB policy faces tough test

Do eurozone sovereign debt spreads still matter?

De-dollarisation: the yuan’s use grows, but the greenback’s global role is proving to be stubborn

Credit is still expanding in the US, but conditions are getting tighter

Emerging markets in Africa buckle under mountains of debt

Could inflation surprise us all and collapse?

Consumer price inflation is coming - just look at commodities

China’s economy is at an inflection point

China reduces coal imports to near zero from Australia

China leads industrial robot installations

China remains reliant on coal

China eases monetary policy as the rest of the world tightens