‍World‍

We’ve just added the Drewry World Container Index, covering eight major east-west shipping trade routes. These indices track container freight rates and are reported in USD per 40-foot container. Detailed methodology can be accessed here.‍

In the chart below, we compare all major shipping routes and Drewry’s Composite index. Throughout the pandemic, freight rates increased dramatically. As one UNCTAD policy brief put it, “changes in consumption and shopping patterns triggered by the pandemic, including a surge in electronic commerce as well as lockdown measures, have in fact led to increased import demand for manufactured consumer goods, a large part of which is moved in shipping containers.”

Today, most freight rates have returned to pre-pandemic levels, except for the Rotterdam-New York route. This trans-Atlantic rate began increasing later than the others – from mid-2021 – and is now close to record highs. Press reports have cited much more limited capacity on trans-Atlantic routes versus their Pacific equivalents. 

South Korea‍

For South Korea, we’ve added mortgage rate bands from the Korea Housing-Finance Corporation. 

In the chart below, we track the correlation between the national mortgage rate band and the number of unsold houses on the market. It appears that mortgage rates are leading unsold houses by 7 months (with a correlation of 0.76). As rates surged in 2022, the stock of unsold houses increased significantly.  

‍Democratic Republic of the Congo‍

We’ve just added statistics on mining extraction and hydrocarbon production for the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The dataset is sourced from the nation’s central bank.

Minerals and petroleum are central to the DRC's economy, making up the vast majority of its exports as measured by value. The country is also considered as one of the world’s wealthiest in terms of untapped mineral resources, including cobalt and lithium – two key minerals used in electric vehicles. 

We’ve used the new pie chart feature, available in Macrobond’s 1.26 release, to display the current breakdown of mining and hydrocarbon production. Some 90 percent of this resource extraction is tied to diamond and oil production. 

‍Czech Republic‍

The National Bank of the Czech Republic has started publishing a weekly economic activity index, which is now available in Macrobond. The methodology can be accessed here.

In the chart below, we used this index as leading indicator for GDP. With a pre-pandemic best correlation lag estimated at 25 weeks, the chart indicates a high probablility of GDP contraction (in year-on-year terms) in Q4 2022 and early 2023. 

Spain‍

With the rise of interest rates globally, the housing market has become a concern for various economies. In this context, it's worth revisiting previous housing slumps. In Spain, in particular, households got hit in an unprecedented manner during the global financial crisis of 2008. 

One key factor at that time was that the vast majority of households had variable mortgage rates (as the chart below highlights). 

To help analyse the current cycle, we have added indicators from INE measuring the proportion of mortgages having fixed or variable rates.

In the chart below, we can see a drastic change of behavior since 2016, with a rise in the proportion of fixed-rate mortgages. Since 2021, this is the largest proportion of mortgages; at the present moment, 70 percent of all mortgages are fixed-rate. Spanish households might thus be better prepared for a downturn than they were in 2008.